Ahead of conclave, bookies narrow down on favorites for next pope

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, Cardinal Pietro Parolin and other Cardinals stand, on the day of the translation of Pope Francis’ body, in St. Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican, April 23, 2025. REUTERS

LONDON — As cardinals follow solemn tradition and enter the conclave starting Wednesday to choose Pope Francis’s successor, bookies are reveling in huge bets.

Several bookmakers have placed the best odds on Italian cardinal Pietro Parolin as the favorite to replace Francis, who died on April 21, setting in motion a series of orchestrated, secretive rituals to appoint the next pontiff.

Parolin, the Vatican’s chief diplomat who was Francis’s number two during much of his papacy, was leading with 5/2 odds for Irish bookmaker Paddy Power.

READ: PH Catholics voice expectations of successor to Pope Francis

He was closely followed by Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, who Paddy Power had on safe 3/1 odds.

The charismatic moderate with a sizable social media following, would be, if elected, the first Asian pontiff.

British bookie William Hill had Parolin and Tagle tied at 5/2.

Following the frontrunners across several lists was Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana, who could become the first black pope.

More conservative than Parolin and Tagle, Turkson has also served as a papal envoy and mediator in regions including South Sudan.

READ: Next pope? One of these cardinals could be the one

Betting on the next pope is one of the largest non-sporting events for bookmakers.

“Over £100 million is expected to be wagered on the outcome,” Sam Eaton from online betting site Oddschecker told AFP.

Outside bet

Polymarket, a US-based forecasting site powered by crypto, has taken in over $17 million ($23 million) in bets since the pope’s death.

The sums are more modest for bookies, which have stricter regulations. Around £65,000 has been wagered on the UK’s Betfair Exchange, compared to over £1.3 million traded on Eurovision, Eaton pointed out.

The centuries-old practice has often drawn the ire of Catholics who frown on gambling and financial speculation.

Experts have urged caution as well. The cardinals in the conclave are sworn to secrecy at the risk of excommunication, with little or no reliable information available to punters.

When Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio was chosen and became Pope Francis, he was not considered a favourite and ranked low on bookie lists.

However, in 2005, Joseph Ratzinger started off as unpopular with bookmakers but by the end of the conclave was the clear favourite. He became Pope Benedict XVI.

According to Eaton from Oddschecker, one “outsider” is enjoying a similar surge in popularity: Portuguese Cardinal Jose Tolentino de Mendonca, hailed in his home country for his contributions to poetry and literature.

There are also markets to bet on the date the pope will be chosen. The process, which could last hours, days or even months, will end when white smoke billows from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel.

In another market for papal names, Francis is leading with 5/1 odds according to Oddschecker.

Also on the list, perhaps undercutting the prescience of bookmakers, at a long but not impossible 33/1, is Donald. /dl